The midterms are just one month away, and the stakes for our republic have never been higher. If Democrats keep their current control of both the House of Representatives AND the Senate, America may never been the same. In this clip, Glenn and Stu run through the latest numbers: The races currently leaning left, those leaning right, and the ones that are becoming closer each day. These are the races Republicans MUST win if they want to take back control…
TranscriptBelow is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: Average income lost under Joe Biden is $4,200. Gas prices have risen now, this is the sixth day in a row. And numbers are falling for the Democrats. But is it showing up at the polls yet?
STU: Yeah. Yeah. I think -- I just some of the early Democratic momentum pitch, that we have heard has started to fade quite a bit. We went through this on Stu Does America on Friday. We did our first sort of chalkboard magnet. All the states break down the Senate look. So give you a quick picture of this. The lay of the land, before any elections even start is 36 Democrats and 29 Republicans. That's because all the seats aren't up for election. So they start with a nice lead here already. In the likely category, probably not going to change. There's at least eight races there for the Democrats. There are 13 races on the Republican side, that are likely not really going to be all that close or competitive. Which brings you to 44-42. Some leaner races: Leaning Democrat right now, we have Colorado and Washington, which are two states that are -- the polling is favoring Democrats by a decent amount. You know, Republicans really like their candidate in Washington, for example. So there's some reason to watch those races. Though, they're favoring Democrats. Also, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, we have in the leaning Democrat. Now, Pennsylvania as we've covered is completely insane.
If that's the way they go, they have a man who can't speak, as their candidate. But still polling showing them five points or more up in most of these polls.
New Hampshire just finished the primary. Right now, Maggie Hassan seems to have about an eight-point lead in that race.
Though, that one I can see tightening. It's been tighter in races before the primary, so we'll see how that goes.
Leaning Republican, five races there. A couple of just sort of weird races there. Which is Alaska. Alaska has the situation with the rank choice voting, going on. But it's really Republican versus Republican there. But then again, one of the Republicans is Lisa Murkowski. So do you count that? I don't even know.
GLENN: Yeah, Democrat.
GLENN: But how is she performing in the polls?
Because the others dropped out, to kind of coalesce around Murkowski's --
STU: I believe Murkowski gets beaten when it actually occurs.
The fact that this woman ran a write-in campaign from the Senate and won. She won, a write-in campaign for the Senate.
The name goes a long way in Alaska. Murkowski. It's almost all Democrats voting for her.
I mean, that has really become the Democrats and moderates sort of going that way, where Republicans are going towards the Trump-favored candidate there in Alaska. So you'll get a Republican out of Alaska and for the Senate. It just depends on if it's Murkowski or not. I mean, she's one of the weakest Republicans you can find. Another weird one, we've talked about a lot, is Utah, with Mike Lee. He's running in a race against an independent. There have been some close polls in this race.
GLENN: I don't believe it.
STU: I don't believe it. I still this is a strong Republican scene. I think Lee will win there. It's closer than I think Mike wants.
GLENN: Mike always -- even when he's not running for reelection. He's like, you know, I have to listen to the people, because the people they can throw me out of office at any time.
STU: Yeah. Sure.
GLENN: And I think there's a part of Mike that, you know, wouldn't mind it, if it's okay, it's over. Go make money. Go do something with your life.
STU: That's got to be the feeling of a lot of people.
GLENN: Yeah, I think so. But he takes it seriously.
STU: Oh, yeah, and look, he should. This is a new tactic from the Democrats. This is what they're rewarding in Utah, if you vote for Evan McMullin.
It's a new tactic. Instead of just running a Democrat, they run a guy who says he isn't a Democrat, but just will vote like the Democrats every time. You can have that if you want. Normally that's done under the D banner. It's now done under the I banner.
GLENN: And they didn't run.
STU: The Democrats dropped out of the race completely, and just are letting everyone vote for --
GLENN: It's crazy. It's crazy. And you will see this in every election, if it works this time.
STU: Yes. Especially in deep red states. They will try to knock off Republicans, by running fake independents in this case.
Missouri is out there as well. Eric Schmidt has a pretty solid size of a lead, he should win there.
Florida is closer than I think it should be with Marco Rubio.
You know, oddly, he's -- most of the polls only have him up four or five points.
GLENN: You're kidding me!
STU: Yeah. And this isn't a race where obviously DeSantis is likely going to win handily. Val Demings is the candidate in Florida, going against Rubio, who was mentioned as a VP candidate for Biden. Somebody thought highly of her, on the Democratic side.
GLENN: She has brain damage?
STU: No, I don't know.
GLENN: She'll never have a leadership role.
STU: And Ohio, we talked to JD Vance last week. He's opened up a lead in most of the polling there. I think he'll win that race. But still too close to say it's a likely race by any means. So it's five. So, basically, what you have there is 48 Democrats. Forty-seven Republicans. If you include the lienors. And five toss ups for the Republicans to take advantage control of the Senate, they would need to win four of these five races. Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. Their best hope right now, probably North Carolina, where they are relatively consistent, but small lead there.
Nevada seems to be pretty much toss-up. Though Adam Laxalt seems to be moving ahead slightly there. Ron Johnson has had good polls in Wisconsin, lately.
It looks like he might be a slight favorite there. Arizona has narrowed, though still favors the Democrats.
Although, it's hard for me to understand the polling there. You see polling where Blake Masters is down by seven or eight points. And Kari Lake, who is supposed to be the most extreme, crazy person in the world, which she's not. We've had her on the air. She's running for governor. With the same voters, and they're saying, she's only down by one. So it's hard for me to understand how Masters would be down eight, and Lake would be down only one.
GLENN: Name recognition.
STU: And she might be. She might just be a really good candidate, and Herschel Walker in Georgia well. The polling has bounced back and forth. Both very close. Really a pure toss-up race at this point.
GLENN: Oh, jeez. For the love of Pete, get everyone you know. Dig up your father, your mother. Bring them out. I mean, let them air out a little bit.
STU: Democrats do it all the time.
GLENN: Yeah. What's the problem with that? Make sure that everyone goes out and votes.